With the first ever African FIFA Senior World Cup almost here, the right time for book makers to prove their worth either in expertly analyzing based on what they have seen of all the team selections or of shortlisted players for various countries coming to the South Africa party, the expected eventual winner of the first ever senior world cup to be hosted on African soil.
I am not a professional book maker, but I love the game of football and have seen in previous editions how the predictions of our so-called book makers have failed to provide the eventual winners. There judgment though has always been based on what they see of the pedigrees of the team coaches, the caliber of players paraded by the various teams and maybe the football history of the teams at the mundial.
In recent past, many of our football analysts or book makers had tipped counties like Spain, England and even Germany to win the world cup but at the end most of the tipped teams crash out the tournament in a woeful manner. Who would have given it to Italy in the last edition held in Germany; although these so-called experts are not answerable to anybody as they are only involved in expressing their personal views which in no way has anything to do with the outcome of the tournament.
In predicting the outcome of a tournament as big as the world cup, so many factors would have to be considered. I will discuss a few of these factors for the benefit of my readers;
1. THE LUCK FACTOR: Most countries lose the very best of their players playing top flight football in Europe, South America and all other continents where well organized club football are played to injuries before major tournaments like this one. Let’s consider the case of Chelsea’s Michael Ballack who happens to be the captain of Germany, the other time it was about the much hyped David Beckham of England, Michael Essien of Ghana and so on, the list is endless. It is therefore the luckiest teams which have got a very large chunk of their star players injury-free that stands a better chance of making meaningful progress and impression in the world cup.
2. OFFICIATING: I do not intend to crucify the match officials as they are mare humans that are not immune to mistakes. Quite often we see terrible officiating that are so obvious but because the man at the center has the final say, nothing ever happens there-after. I have never seen the outcome of a football match over-ruled because of officiating errors; so, most good teams could become victims and whoever benefits from these flaws advances in the tournament. We have seen clear offside goals being allowed due to the error factor which can never be ruled out; after all it is one of the excitements of the game as they become talking points there after. Also clear appeals for penalties are often punished with cards because, in the judgment of the referee, simulation had taken place. Even when there are cases of play-acting on the part of some clever players, some referees get easily fooled to issue cards to purported offenders who where in the true sense innocent of the offense they are being punished for. So many teams have had their best players sent off the pitch for offenses they never committed.
Goals have also been scored with hands; for instance the famous ‘Hand of god’ goal scored against England by Diego maradona was a talking point in the very vocal British press and world over, but did that change the outcome of that match? NO. FIFA have failed to provide any answer for this kind of awkward way of winning a football matches. Recently, in the journey to qualification to this year’s world cup in South Africa, French player; Henry Thierry in their match against Ireland, used his hand to bring into play a ball that was outside bound before scoring the goal that got France their qualification thereby denying Ireland a fair chance of playing in the biggest football event in the universe. Did FIFA do anything to see that justice was done to Ireland? NEVER! So France qualified in a questionable circumstance. Whoever must win must win fairly, otherwise all the noise about Fair-Play could just be mere hypocrisy.
3. THE TEAM UNITY FACTOR: The team with the most united front has the greatest chance of moving ahead in the tournament. Once there is a crack within the players or between the technical team and the players or between the teams and their administrators, the kind of issues that crops up in most African teams to major events like the world cup. It ranges from unpaid match bonuses, non-kept promises, ego issues where some players see themselves as super-stars who deserve VIP treatment and others as minors. This breeds acrimony in teams and make them lose focus. Any team that must do well must be a team of united gang of players with a single motive and business like attitude devoid of any distractions.
4. SURPRISE FACTOR: Who would have ever dreamed that South Korea of all countries would get to the semi finals of Korea/Japan 2002 FIFA World cup which was co-hosted by Japan and South Korea?
The progression of Korea in that edition of the world cup came as a big surprise to the football pundits’ world. Who would have also predicted that Ghana could go all the way to win the last edition of FIFA under 20 world cup hosted by Egypt at the expense of great football nations like Brazil, Spain, Argentina and even Nigeria that has a pedigree in youth football tournaments having won the maiden edition the under 16 world cup which was hosted by China a championship they have won thrice, also having won silver medals at various editions of the under 20 world cup and in 1996 winning the soccer gold at the Atlanta Olympics, the only soccer glory that has eluded the almighty Brazil who nearly won in 1996 only to be denied by Nigeria.
In 1994 no one gave it to Nigeria against Bulgaria, but Nigeria went ahead to win convincingly with the best ever set of football players to come out of Nigeria coached by the Dutch tactician Clemence Westerhof. In 1998, no one ever thought Nigeria could ever match up against one of that year’s favorite team; Spain, but Nigeria dealt a big blow on Spain’s ambition beating them 3-2. I will never forget in a hurry that long range volley from Sunday Oliseh that proved to be the winner.
Lastly amongst other great surprising upsets, is the famous humiliation of the defending champion to the 2002 world cup having won the previous edition they hosted in 1998 by unknown Senegal that came to the tournament just to acquire some experience and enjoy themselves.
All book makers gave that match to France, but Lo and Behold, the much dreaded France was beaten by Senegal with a group of average players. It turned out to be one of the greatest upsets of the world cup of that year. The surprise factor therefore could play a role in producing the eventual winners.
In conclusion, on paper one would be tempted to simply hand over the world cup to the likes of Brazil, Argentina, Spain, England, Portugal, Italy, Germany based on current forms of there various players. I will like to take a look at the various teams and predict which team would eventually make it to the second round of this year’s world cup.
Group ‘A’, which has South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay and France, I am tipping France and South Africa (with massive home support from the partisan South African supporters behind their beloved team)to advance.
Group ‘B’ which has the ‘almighty’ Argentina with the likes of merciless Messi and Diego Milito in their attack, Nigeria (a country blessed with individually gifted players but lacking in the technical department because of hitherto absence of a sound technical team), Korea Republic and Greece. As a Nigerian, forgive me if I allow patriotism to overshadow my reasoning. I would therefore like to tip Argentina and Nigeria to move on. Nigeria have a way of springing surprises when you least expect them to perform well, but with coach Lars Lagerback’s coaching pedigree, one should expect a respectable performance from the ‘Giant of Africa’. Nigeria like I said before is blessed with great talents, but has always lacked the technical support which many other average teams have that help them to soar beyond expectation.
In group ‘C’, where England, USA, Algeria and Slovenia will be slogging it out for a place in the second round, I am tipping England and Slovenia to qualify.
From group D I am tipping Germany and Ghana to qualify ahead of Australia and Serbia.
Group ‘E’ will produce Netherlands and Denmark ahead of Japan and Cameroon. Group ‘F’ I see Italy and Paraguay qualifying ahead of Slovakia and debutant New Zea-land.
Group ‘G’ will undoubtedly produce Brazil and Portugal ahead of Cote d’Ivoire and People Republic of Korea.
Group ‘H’ will provide Spain and Chile ahead of Switzerland and Honduras.
Whatever happens contrary to my prediction will be credited to the surprise factor which cannot be ruled out. But I believe that the surprise factor can only produce less than 10% of any changes to my predictions.
On the issue of who wins the South Africa 2010 FIFA World cup, I will keep my fingers crossed for now pending the outcome of the first phase of the tournament. I promised to continually post updates in this blog for the benefit of my readers
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
FIFA World Cup (South Africa 2010) Euphoria, 'Reality or Sentiment'
The senior world cup as organized by FIFA (Federation of International Football Associations), is unarguably the biggest sporting event on planet earth. The reason being that the management of FIFA has been able to raise the popularity of this beloved round leather game to a height that is unprecedented in the history of sport. It has even become a political tool that the hitherto uninterested military and political world powers like the United States of America has now become a power to reckon with in modern days football. They even went a step further to popularize this great game by hosting the 1994 edition of the mundial. The US has added technology to football coaching and management.
Playing football between nations is just like going to war as some countries now use it either to settle political scores or show their sporting superiority. A case in hand is the incident that occurred during the qualifying rounds of the forth-coming South Africa 2010 FIFA World cup, between African champions Egypt and their perennial rivals Algeria, which led to a lot of off the field squabbles leaving many wounded and almost led to serious diplomatic face-off between the two nations.
A country like Nigeria came into lime-light after winning the 1996 Atlanta Olympic game soccer event. This single soccer goal eclipsed any other medals won by the Nigerian contingent to that year's Olympic games, regrettably though, Nigeria has not been able to make a major impact at the senior world cup; her best performance so far being a second round qualification at both the 1994 and 1998 editions, they however could not go beyond the first round in Korea/Japan 2002 and were not able to qualify for the 2006 edition in Germany as they were edged out by a less footballing nation like Angola. This actually shocked the world sending a signal to the so-called football world powers that there are no longer any minors in the world of football.
Among the 35 nations joining host South Africa for the first ever edition of the mun dial on African soil (Thanks to Sepp Blatter for his love for mother land Africa), there has been so much hype about which country is more favoured to lift the greatest, most prestigious silver ware in the world. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Italy, England, Portugal are being taunted as possible winners by soccer pundits based on current form of their players plying their trade across the globe or past records. Although we all know that records don't play football. Some have even raised the hope of some African countries by speculating that this might just be the chance for an African country to lift this most coveted trophy.
As laughable as this might sound, some African football federation have begone to give their coaches some tall orders. For instance the newly hired Swedish born Nigeria's coach Lars Lagerback has been asked to take Nigeria to the semi final stage of the mundial. I don't know where they got this rare confidence from.
For the exponents of the possibility of an African country lifting the cup, they base their belief on the recent accomplishment of the Ghanaian under 20 team that set a new record by being the first African country to win at that stage of the competition and the accomplishments of some African countries including Nigeria at the youth level of football. They say, if Ghana could win at that stage, then why not at the senior level. What is not known by these exponents is the dearth of youth development programs in these countries to be able to sustain the various successes achieved at all the youth championships, sustainable programs must be put in place to build on the successes achieved.
I have chosen not to be a pessimist, but realities staring me in the face tells me that no African country has the administrative discipline nor technical properties to win the world cup, not in the next 20 years.
Come June 2010, book makers would be proved right or wrong as speculations would begin to pave way for realities. Dreams would be met and dreams would be dashed, but the euphoria of the FIFA world cup would linger on for as long as history could hold it.
My worries are these, amongst the 36 nations eyeing the the FIFA world cup in South Africa, how many countries have opened training camps, how many friendly matches are being played, how much does friendly matches determine the true strength of a team, how far can countries like Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, Ivory-Coast, Ghana and even host South Africa go in the competition. At the end of the mundial reality would definitely replace all the sentiments.
Do you have a different opinion? Please drop some comment here, let's talk about it.
Playing football between nations is just like going to war as some countries now use it either to settle political scores or show their sporting superiority. A case in hand is the incident that occurred during the qualifying rounds of the forth-coming South Africa 2010 FIFA World cup, between African champions Egypt and their perennial rivals Algeria, which led to a lot of off the field squabbles leaving many wounded and almost led to serious diplomatic face-off between the two nations.
A country like Nigeria came into lime-light after winning the 1996 Atlanta Olympic game soccer event. This single soccer goal eclipsed any other medals won by the Nigerian contingent to that year's Olympic games, regrettably though, Nigeria has not been able to make a major impact at the senior world cup; her best performance so far being a second round qualification at both the 1994 and 1998 editions, they however could not go beyond the first round in Korea/Japan 2002 and were not able to qualify for the 2006 edition in Germany as they were edged out by a less footballing nation like Angola. This actually shocked the world sending a signal to the so-called football world powers that there are no longer any minors in the world of football.
Among the 35 nations joining host South Africa for the first ever edition of the mun dial on African soil (Thanks to Sepp Blatter for his love for mother land Africa), there has been so much hype about which country is more favoured to lift the greatest, most prestigious silver ware in the world. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Italy, England, Portugal are being taunted as possible winners by soccer pundits based on current form of their players plying their trade across the globe or past records. Although we all know that records don't play football. Some have even raised the hope of some African countries by speculating that this might just be the chance for an African country to lift this most coveted trophy.
As laughable as this might sound, some African football federation have begone to give their coaches some tall orders. For instance the newly hired Swedish born Nigeria's coach Lars Lagerback has been asked to take Nigeria to the semi final stage of the mundial. I don't know where they got this rare confidence from.
For the exponents of the possibility of an African country lifting the cup, they base their belief on the recent accomplishment of the Ghanaian under 20 team that set a new record by being the first African country to win at that stage of the competition and the accomplishments of some African countries including Nigeria at the youth level of football. They say, if Ghana could win at that stage, then why not at the senior level. What is not known by these exponents is the dearth of youth development programs in these countries to be able to sustain the various successes achieved at all the youth championships, sustainable programs must be put in place to build on the successes achieved.
I have chosen not to be a pessimist, but realities staring me in the face tells me that no African country has the administrative discipline nor technical properties to win the world cup, not in the next 20 years.
Come June 2010, book makers would be proved right or wrong as speculations would begin to pave way for realities. Dreams would be met and dreams would be dashed, but the euphoria of the FIFA world cup would linger on for as long as history could hold it.
My worries are these, amongst the 36 nations eyeing the the FIFA world cup in South Africa, how many countries have opened training camps, how many friendly matches are being played, how much does friendly matches determine the true strength of a team, how far can countries like Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, Ivory-Coast, Ghana and even host South Africa go in the competition. At the end of the mundial reality would definitely replace all the sentiments.
Do you have a different opinion? Please drop some comment here, let's talk about it.
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